How Many Radical Islamists? Indirect Evidence from Five Countries
نویسندگان
چکیده
High fertility and low market returns to schooling are predicted by a clubgood model of religious sects. We investigate fertility and returns to education among families of graduates of Muslim religious schools in Indonesia, Bangladesh, India, Cote D’Ivoire, and Pakistan. Fertility is significantly higher among these families in all five countries. Returns to education are generally lower among these families, though that result is statistically significant in only two of the five samples, those in which the indicator of Islamic education is more precisely defined. These findings are consistent with previous results for Ultra-Orthodox Jews in Israel and Christian Anabaptist sects in North America, suggesting a common pattern of behavior across sects of different religions. Beyond testing the club model, the results generate estimates of prevalence for a well-defined concept of radical Islam: 2-5% of Muslim women in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Cote D’Ivoire, 15-18% of Muslim women in India and Indonesia. ∗ Berman acknowledges the support of NSF grant 0214701 through the NBER. We appreciate the comments of Jim Brown, Peter Hartley, Peter Mieszkowski, Alvin Tarlov and participants in the following seminars and conferences: New England Universities Development Conference, Society for the Scientific Study of Religion, Rice University/University of Houston empirical seminar; NBER Labor Studies, USC and UC San Diego. Corresponding author: Eli Berman, [email protected].
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